Sleeping Beauty

Useful for seeing that probabilities may not be intrinsic quantities, but just useful quantities in models that make it easier for us to reason about stochastic situations that we care about.

The case of Sleeping Beauty .

Anthropic Reasoning - are there aliens?

Thinking about the 'many observers' idea (aliens).

Paradoxical Coin flipping to Broken Decisions

I heard one of those envelope swapping puzzles, this one involves coin flipping. In trying to figure it out I got confused and realized I had to think hard about how we make decisions. Here I outline how I think about utility, expected utility, and argue that the way we use these concepts doesn't really work.

A paradox to attack probabilistic utility based decisions .

That's all for now.