Things outside work

Notes I wrote years ago about odd corners of probability, plus some ancient bike videos.

Strange Probability

Paradoxical coin flipping and decision making

An envelope-swapping style puzzle with coin flips that raised questions for me about how we make decisions using utility and expected utility.

A paradox to attack probabilistic utility-based decisions

Sleeping Beauty

This make me think that probabilities aren’t intrinsic, they’re tools that help us reason about uncertain situations.

Sleeping Beauty

Anthropic reasoning: are there aliens?

Thinking about the “many observers” idea when considering the possibility of aliens.

“Many observers”

Some Minor Pages

I vibe coded some pages that I like:

Bike Tricks

When I was much younger, I got into bike tricks. That was a lot of fun—here are some pictures and videos.

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